Grant Bishop

Tuesday, 10 November 2026 · Markets closed · Edition 20

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This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money

This inflation is coming from broken supply, not from too much money. While it lasts, owning the broad market is not the hedge our earlier views assumed.

Grant Bishop · data as of 2026-10-13 · bears on This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money ·

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What would prove us wrong

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) above 3 percent for two quarters after oil falls back below $85 — that would mean the inflation has become demand-driven and the old hedge is back. Or broad-market multiples expanding while oil stays above $100 — the market disagreeing with the 1970s.

Source anchor

BEA core PCE, monthly; EIA Brent

opened 2026-08-22 · review 2026-11-30 · layer 1

Add the review date to a calendar · Every review date, as one calendar

The disconfirmer, charted
Brent crude, monthly average, dollars a barrel
$85 $100$55$93.9$132.92025-01-012026-10-01 $79.27 · 2025-01-01 Brent crude $75.44 · 2025-02-01 Brent crude $72.73 · 2025-03-01 Brent crude $68.13 · 2025-04-01 Brent crude $64.45 · 2025-05-01 Brent crude $71.44 · 2025-06-01 Brent crude $71.04 · 2025-07-01 Brent crude $67.87 · 2025-08-01 Brent crude $67.99 · 2025-09-01 Brent crude $64.54 · 2025-10-01 Brent crude $63.8 · 2025-11-01 Brent crude $62.54 · 2025-12-01 Brent crude $66.6 · 2026-01-01 Brent crude $70.89 · 2026-02-01 Brent crude $103.13 · 2026-03-01 Brent crude $117.29 · 2026-04-01 Brent crude $107.14 · 2026-05-01 Brent crude $85.4 · 2026-06-01 Brent crude $83.76 · 2026-07-01 Brent crude $91.08 · 2026-08-01 Brent crude $114.16 · 2026-09-01 Brent crude $125.32 · 2026-10-01 Brent crude
Brent crude, monthly average, dollars a barrel
as of 2026-10-12 · source: fred.stlouisfed.org
Core PCE prices, % change from a year earlier
3% — the line this claim names2.5%2.9%3.3%2024-01-012026-08-01 3.2% · 2024-01-01 Core PCE prices 3.2% · 2024-02-01 Core PCE prices 3.1% · 2024-03-01 Core PCE prices 3% · 2024-04-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2024-05-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2024-06-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2024-07-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2024-08-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2024-09-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2024-10-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2024-11-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2024-12-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-01-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-02-01 Core PCE prices 2.6% · 2025-03-01 Core PCE prices 2.7% · 2025-04-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-05-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-06-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-07-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2025-08-01 Core PCE prices 2.8% · 2025-09-01 Core PCE prices 2.7% · 2025-10-01 Core PCE prices 2.7% · 2025-11-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2025-12-01 Core PCE prices 2.9% · 2026-01-01 Core PCE prices 3% · 2026-02-01 Core PCE prices 3.1% · 2026-03-01 Core PCE prices 3.1% · 2026-04-01 Core PCE prices 3.2% · 2026-05-01 Core PCE prices 3% · 2026-06-01 Core PCE prices 3% · 2026-07-01 Core PCE prices 3% · 2026-08-01 Core PCE prices
Core PCE prices, % change from a year earlier
as of 2026-08-01 · source: fred.stlouisfed.org
History
2026-11-30Review due.
2026-09-30House View v2.2: The Warsh Fed stated.
2026-08-22House View v2.0: Full rewrite.
Pieces on this claim

Is diesel the fuel the supply shock hits hardest, and has it reached the engine makers yet? · 2026-10-22

Is a calmer Strait of Hormuz the end of the oil supply shock, or only the end of its worst phase? · 2026-10-21

Price rises need more than rising volume to help a company · 2026-10-21

Outside the artificial-intelligence build, is the economy growing, or just charging more? · 2026-10-20

What is a House View? · 2026-09-01

Follow this claim. The weekly piece, and a note when it trips.

Record

Written according to the Grant Bishop standard — machine-researched, machine-checked, human-judged; then read and committed by the publisher. Every number traces to a filing or a dated market record; every claim carries a date and what would prove it wrong.

Drafted by
Claude Opus 5.5 under Grant Bishop's methodology
Verification
multi-source verified, machine-drafted, human-gated
As of
2026-10-13
Published
Aug 31, 2026, 19:15 ET · 2026-08-31 23:15 UTC · changelog
What would change this
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) above 3 percent for two quarters after oil falls back below $85 — that would mean the inflation has become demand-driven and the old hedge is back. Or broad-market multiples expanding while oil stays above $100 — the market disagreeing with the 1970s.
Position disclosure
The publisher holds index-level U.S. equity exposure and no direct position in any single name discussed.
Not advice
General commentary for a general audience. Not advice for your situation.
Sources (1)
1BEA core PCE, monthly; EIA Brent