Changelog · 52 entries
Changelog
Every committed piece and every House View version, newest first. Nothing is quietly changed.
2026-11-05Technology's bad week fell on the spenders, not the builders · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (judgement, cheques, centres, favour)
2026-11-05Is Google Cloud revenue keeping pace with its backlog, and which spending range is really Alphabet's? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (centres, recognised, recognising, annualised, favours)
2026-11-05Is diesel the fuel the supply shock hits hardest, and has it reached the engine makers yet? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (centre, centres)
2026-11-05October hold, December hike in view: what must the statement say to keep our rate-rise claim alive? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (signalling)
2026-11-05Record ETF inflows: confidence, or cover? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (favoured, favourable)
2026-11-05Can the last week of October confirm the frame, or only break it? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (labour, centres, favourable)
2026-11-05Is the Gulf's oil windfall paying for a state-backed computing build-out, or merely arriving at the same time as one? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (centre, centres, realised, recognised)
2026-11-05Outside the artificial-intelligence build, is the economy growing, or just charging more? · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (centres, stabilised)
2026-11-05Supplier order books held through the AI share slide · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (signalled, signalling)
2026-11-05Demand for Vertiv's cooling kit held; the share price did not · piece — US spelling, 5 Nov (cancelled)
2026-11-01House View v3.0.1 — Copy correction: seven section headings reworded in plain language. No claim changed.
2026-11-01Backlog and capital spending are two measures, not yet two businesses · piece — one sentence revised, 1 Nov (no House View v3.0, variable 3)
2026-11-01Is the AI build now waiting on the plug rather than the chip? · piece — two sentences revised, 1 Nov (no variable 5)
2026-11-01Demand for Vertiv's cooling kit held; the share price did not · piece — House View links relabeled, 1 Nov (plain labels)
2026-11-01SpaceX's quarterly report: did sovereign money show up anywhere in a filing? · piece — short version and body revised, 1 Nov (plain labels, no House View variable 4 or Gulf oil money may be paying for the government-backed AI build in those sentences)
2026-11-01Is the Gulf's oil windfall paying for a state-backed computing build-out, or merely arriving at the same time as one? · piece — home-page dek revised, 1 Nov (plain label, no Gulf oil money may be paying for the government-backed AI build)
2026-11-01October hold, December hike in view: what must the statement say to keep our rate-rise claim alive? · piece — title revised, 1 Nov (plain label, no The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation)
2026-10-31Technology's bad week fell on the spenders, not the builders · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-31Backlog and capital spending are two measures, not yet two businesses · piece — headline revised, 30 Oct
2026-10-31Price rises need more than rising volume to help a company · piece — headline revised, 30 Oct
2026-10-31The AI build is already contracted; its payoff is not yet measured · piece — headline revised, 30 Oct
2026-10-31Supplier order books held through the AI share slide · piece — headline revised, 30 Oct
2026-10-31Demand for Vertiv's cooling kit held; the share price did not · piece — headline revised, 30 Oct
2026-10-25Did anything in Bloom Energy's and Comfort Systems' Oct 22 filings explain the next day's drop? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-25Is Google Cloud revenue keeping pace with its backlog, and which spending range is really Alphabet's? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-24Housing starts fell 5.2% in September: has dearer money broken housing first, or only slowed it? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-22Is diesel the fuel the supply shock hits hardest, and has it reached the engine makers yet? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-22October hold, December hike in view: what must the statement say to keep our rate-rise claim alive? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-22Record ETF inflows: confidence, or cover? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-22Can the last week of October confirm the frame, or only break it? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-22SpaceX's quarterly report: did sovereign money show up anywhere in a filing? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-21Backlog and capital spending are two measures, not yet two businesses · piece — This sharpens Spending on the AI build is running ahead of its revenue; it moves nothing.
2026-10-21Is the Gulf's oil windfall paying for a state-backed computing build-out, or merely arriving at the same time as one? · piece — This sharpens Gulf oil money may be paying for the government-backed AI build; it moves nothing.
2026-10-21Is a calmer Strait of Hormuz the end of the oil supply shock, or only the end of its worst phase? · piece — This sharpens This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money; it moves nothing.
2026-10-21Gold's high price: insurance policy, or a standing verdict on currency? · piece — Nothing moves; the frame stands.
2026-10-21Price rises need more than rising volume to help a company · piece — This sharpens This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money; it moves nothing.
2026-10-20The AI build is already contracted; its payoff is not yet measured · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-20Outside the artificial-intelligence build, is the economy growing, or just charging more? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-19House View v3.0 — Theory restored. The spine with its case against, compute as the meta-resource, the waterfall, the three layers and three orders, what the frame implies, and where it leads — compressed out between v2.0 and v2.2.3 — are back, in the current register. The current regime and its variables are unchanged. Near-term conviction lowered: Spending on the AI build is running ahead of its revenue (the deployment gap) and AI's economy-wide productivity lift does not arrive before 2028 (the lift broadens slowly) added. Watchpoints sorted by layer. The v1.0 and v1.1 rows below are restored to what those versions said; v1.1's dated claims, retired in v2.0 without resolution, are recorded in the June record.
2026-10-19Supplier order books held through the AI share slide · piece — This sharpens The market is paying less for earnings, not doubting the businesses. It narrows what should count as evidence for it: not a single week's equity move, which cannot yet be measured on a primary source, and not a single week's yields, which fell 5, but the interest cost borne by the heaviest borrowers set against the order books of their suppliers. Three things would move the verdict. A rate increase on 28 October, followed by a hot 10 November CPI, would give the price-of-money reading the weekly evidence it now lacks. A cut to TSMC's or ASML's fourth-quarter outlook would give the bubble reading its first hard support. And a CoreWeave quarterly report showing interest expense growing faster than its liquidity would tie the two together, which is the scenario in which the distinction between a bubble and dearer money stops mattering.
2026-10-19Is the AI build now waiting on the plug rather than the chip? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-10-13House View v2.2.3 — Copy correction: variable 5 now says the grid-queue figure measures power projects, not data centers. No claim changed.
2026-10-12House View v2.2.2 — Source pass: every figure traced to a primary release or removed; Brent restated to the EIA spot series; market moves stated without figures; adjusted basis labeled. Removed as unverified: the dissent-count comparison and the September futures odds. No claim changed.
2026-10-12House View v2.2.1 — Copy corrections: source 8 closed, Hormuz duration restated; no claim changed.
2026-10-12Demand for Vertiv's cooling kit held; the share price did not · piece — No claim changed.
2026-09-30House View v2.2 — The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation stated. The hawkish turn flagged unverified in v2.0 is confirmed against the FOMC statement of 16 Sep 2026 (12–0, +0.25 to 3.75–4.00 percent) and the September projections (median 4.1 percent at end-2026 and end-2027, from 3.8 and 3.6 in June). Claim, disconfirmer and 10 Dec review stated. A Fed chair hired to cut is not cutting updated: the hike came in September, not the December the June view priced. Frame unchanged: the revision sharpens This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money and The market is paying less for earnings, not doubting the businesses, it does not move them. Sources 17–18 added.
2026-09-01What is a House View? · piece — No claim changed.
2026-08-23House View v2.1b — Register rewrite under the approved standard: business-pages reader, mechanisms not nouns, one sentence with teeth per section. No figure or source changed. About a third shorter.
2026-08-23House View v2.1 — Source pass. Brent corrected from "above $100" to $94.39 (21 Aug), May peak and July level dated. Bab-al-Mandeb and Russian-diesel claims removed pending verification. July FOMC hold, 9–3, and September odds sourced; The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation upgraded to a stated claim. Meta corrected from announcement to unconfirmed report. MGX date corrected to 1 July; characterized as a private fund with sovereign anchors. Vertiv traced to the 29 July release; the 47x–36x multiple and TSM/NFLX examples cut for lack of primary source.
2026-08-22House View v2.0 — Full rewrite. Spine revised: demand-pull vs supply-shock distinguished; the equity hedge made conditional. Regime named. New variables: good news unpaid; compute split into merchant and sovereign legs; oil-funds-sovereign-compute as candidate. Fed pivot flagged unverified. This inflation comes from broken supply, not too much money to The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation opened. Internal draft.
2026-06-10House View v1.1 — The spine held through an exogenous war shock; the yen's defense and the Warsh Fed read as its texture. Both structural legs deepened: compute's floor moved from announced spending to contracted revenue, and power was named the binding constraint; programmable settlement was upgraded across regulator, institution and sovereign, with the rails maturing into a falling market, stated plainly. Six watchpoints reviewed, six candidates decided, the deployment gap added. Five coverage areas claimed: space, metabolic, robotics, critical minerals, monetary hedge. A reading of the SpaceX listing registered the day before it priced. Archived.
2026-05-12House View v1.0 — First publication. The spine (inflation as the political way out of debt) with its case against; compute as the meta-resource; the waterfall (productivity, programmable settlement, hyperdiversification); three confidence layers and three orders of effects; six watchpoints; what the frame implies; and a standing position, retired in v2.0 with directional language. Archived.